22 Comments
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F. Ichiro Gifford's avatar

I’ve gotten a sense that Liang Wenfeng himself has been AGI-pilled for a while, but he’s a Weird Dude™️. It seems like the new shift is that Liang is no longer the outlier so much as the vanguard for something bigger than Deepseek.

afra's avatar

yes that’s right. Liang is very AGI-pilled.

Ruby Wang's avatar

this is a great piece Afra! Having been born in Hangzhou and witnessed its transformation over the past decades, from scenic Marco Polo/Song Dynasty tourist hotspot, to pre and post Alibaba and Deepseek each in turn, its been so interesting to see how the city has changed.

afra's avatar

It's true. Hangzhou is indeed one of my favorite cities—I feel deeply connected to 灵隐寺 and the rich cultural heritage I experienced during my visit. It's remarkable to see such an ancient city at the forefront of technological innovation. You must be very proud of your hometown

the long warred's avatar

We’re 🇺🇸 building god (s) China 🇨🇳 is building China.

We’re 🇺🇸 certainly reverting to type or perhaps Revival (MAGA is another Great Awakening) is the term (we never stop looking for god) while China is building… China. Not unusual for either.

But we are headed in different directions.

Nina Schick's avatar

Brilliant cogent article, one of the most fascinating pieces I’ve read on China/AI.

afra's avatar

Thank you so much Nina! It means a lot🥹🥹

Angelica Oung's avatar

Wow! Great piece. Personally I think I vibe better with the Chinese approach. An AI air conditioner might seem useless but the intention is to make our lives better. Chasing asi has a fundamentally different intention. And it’s easy to feel alienated by the quest as ppl try to see god or something

afra's avatar

Yes totally. I'm still trying to understand the intention of delivering such an ambitious plan…but thanks for your comment Angelica🥹

Mark Witzke's avatar

When does a vibe shift reach the level of paradigm shift?

afra's avatar

when consultants start charging $500k to explain it in PDFs

Jordan Schneider's avatar

really wonder twe this is marketing for global investors who want to get a piece of a chinese openai vs sincere on their part

Deer Reeder 🦌's avatar

prophecy economy is just a super charged and hallucinated version of planned economy.

when you know you can't get money back in your life time, "prophecy" is required to justify risky long term investment and market value.

maybe this is how the next global economic crisis actually starts, when US and China start to jointly dig the same hole to bury themselves.

afra's avatar

I have mixed feelings about this prophecy - I feel like after the Jack Ma crackdown, Alibaba became much more calculated and cautious. They put forward this ambitious plan for a reason, right?

Deer Reeder 🦌's avatar

I agree the benefits to their public image and internal moral, even though secondary to financials IMO, are critical and necessary consideration.

Sometimes I’m amazed as Jack Ma gets to retain his founder aura, while his western peers all fell to become clowns, and how much Chinese public and worker continue to romanticize Alibaba.

afra's avatar

hi deer reeder! thanks for your thoughtful reply - what do you mean by “his western peers all feel to become clowns?”

afra's avatar

hi jordan, i think it can be both! what’s different now is that both approaches are being tolerated and allowed. alibaba seems to be coming out of its “lay low, make no trouble” phase.

Saipo Zhao's avatar

Excellent piece with sharp insights into Alibaba's strategy and China's AI trajectory. The AI application bubble observation is particularly astute.

A few additional points: Yunqi Conference is fundamentally enterprise-focused (think AWS re:Invent), showcasing cloud tech for industries. Recent Alibaba Cloud announcements are mostly SOE partnerships, aligning with Beijing's AI policies.

Comparing Eddie Wu (吴咏铭) to Kevin Kelly misses his actual role. Wu isn't a tech evangelist—he's Alibaba's CEO and cloud operations head, speaking as a strategic spokesperson. The sudden ASI rhetoric makes sense given Alibaba's global leadership in open-source models (Meta essentially abandoned the race), giving them credibility for massive AI infrastructure investments.

That said, despite years of AGI/ASI discussions, actual intelligence breakthroughs remain minimal in both the US and China. As a tech industry analyst, I'm skeptical of any AGI/ASI proclamations, whether from Silicon Valley or Hangzhou.

In AI, US-China competition has never been about narratives—it's about ecosystems.

afra's avatar

Thank you for your generous feedback Poe!

the long warred's avatar

“Less focus on debates about doomerism and superintelligence races.”

“Technium”

Americans are a deeply religious people with a sacred covenant of freedom of religion.

This means we 🇺🇸go looking for God everywhere and we are never, never allowed to actually find him… or claim a religion…

To this end we’re building one. It’s impossible to understand American AI unless you understand we 🇺🇸 are Building God.

Well… many Gods probably, but we ARE Building GOD.

Of course money is no object. My people are religious fanatics forbidden to admit it… to themselves above all.

It’s entirely possible we’ll see a Butlerian Jihad, I’m not joking.

afra's avatar

Totally! Thanks for this comment. I think AGI is a highly religious idea, and that’s why people in China are less interested in it, since most people are atheists.

the long warred's avatar

What happens if in war, still possible… our “god” wins? Oh no animus, I’m a soldier. I accept war as normal relations.

I think it would be foolish for both our nations.

War often is folly.

But it’s the religious aspect we discuss.

Or if our gods go to war here against other Americans?

Civil war is looming here, and war is walking into a dark room.

In fact an entire haunted and dark mansion.